Last week’s patch cycle shook the Dota 2 meta—buffs to key laners, nerfs to popular heroes, and adjustments to roshan timing upended drafting priorities. What followed in the moneyline market was a wave of value shift across regional leagues. Teams that drafted early favorites lost edge; those ready to adapt profited. Understanding these changes isn’t just for analysts—it’s essential for bettors seeking underdog wins or smart value plays. Let’s break down the patch impact, market moves, and sharp angles from recent matches.
What the Patch Changed
A few adjustments had outsized effects:
| Patch Element | Adjustment | Market Impact |
| “Safe lane” eco heroes buff | Tightened gold scaling for farming cores | Underdogs with greedy cores suddenly viable |
| Popular offlaner nerf | Reduced XP gain on heroes like Mars, Timbersaw | Defensive lineups lost strength and shifted pace |
| Roshan respawn reduced | 10 seconds faster respawn time | Roshan skirmishes weighed more in game planning |
| Neutral item drop rate cut | Decreased bounty on faster junglers | Strategy favoured utility and teamfight lineups |
This meant that teams leaning on tempo and lanes rebalanced—most notably shifting advantage from top-tier favourites to mid-tier teams with deep drafting benches.
Moneyline Swings by Match
In the aftermath, moneylines shifted significantly across leagues:
– SEA Regional League: Team A’s odds drifted from −180 to −120 after their Timbersaw pick lost laning priority
– North America: Underdog Team B went from +250 to +180 after successfully adapting first-game draft to greedy safe-laners
– Western Europe: Moneyline flipped on Team C vs Team D, with the latter suddenly favoured after pairing roshan-focused lineup with faster timer
These aren’t random moves—they’re direct reflections of patch context and drafting patterns.
Teams That Gained Value
Players and bettors who anticipated the patch aligned quickly with shifting strengths. Look at these:
– Team B (NA): Known for drafting high-farm cores, with posture to shift away from nerfed offlaners. The odds mispriced their new tempo lineup.
– Team D (WEU): Historically weak in team fights but strong in roshan timing—they matched the update perfectly and moneyline jumped long before match started.
– Team E (CIS): Innovated dual-core mid/offlane pairing. Books hadn’t reacted, keeping odds too high for their adaptive draft approach.
Why these adaptations mattered
– Relying on buffed farming heroes gave long-term advantage in game tempo
– Skipping nerfed offlaners avoided known bans and weakened opposition drafts
– Exploiting faster roshan gave strategic control over map timing and gold spikes
Sharp bettors who tracked these patterns backed early before public sentiment caught up.
5 Sharp Betting Takeaways
– Don’t just follow patch patch notes—identify which teams have playstyle flexibility
– Underdogs with buffed cores and structured draft depth become sudden value plays
– Moneylines move faster when roshan timers shift hero priority—teams that read the timer win
– In-play betting becomes destabilised when patch invalidates expected timelines for pushes
– Avoid pre-patch favourites that lack drafting alternatives—moneylines often drift hard when first game fails
Where Value Emerges Now
Moving into this week’s matches, keep an eye on:
West and SEA quintets using newly strong greedy safe-laners like Medusa or Terrorblade
Roshan-focused teams that commit to early shrine objectives, shifting value in live markets
Draft-first teams able to pivot to utility cores instead of tempo heroes
In-play, the most lucrative moneyline moments come after the first roshan kill—especially if a favourite’s tempo slow down becomes visible to markets late in the second game.